The RAM crisis won't spare your next phone: pay more or settle for less

Everyone thinks of the RAM crisis as a PC builder's problem. Your phone says otherwise. If you were hoping the memory squeeze would fade by the time you upgrade, the people who sell the chips are telling you not to count on it.

The latest warning comes from TrendForce, which expects the supply of DRAM for PCs to decline in 2027, as Notebookcheck reports. The cause is the one we already know: memory makers are steering capacity toward high-bandwidth memory for AI data centers. Phones are in the same queue. According to TrendForce's own reporting, AI server demand keeps squeezing DRAM, and the shortages and price increases are expected to last into 2027.

The supplier is the one saying it, and that matters

Analyst forecasts can be wrong. But Samsung's memory sales chief, Jaejune Kim, told analysts this month that it is "unlikely to see any significant increase in incremental supply through 2028", and that unmet demand from this year carries into next, making 2027 worse than 2026. When the company that profits from scarcity says scarcity continues, we take it seriously.

Our reading is that this is not a cycle waiting to turn. According to the same report, Samsung has signed long-term supply agreements that reportedly commit 60% to 70% of its capacity to hyperscale customers. A phone maker negotiating for leftovers has little leverage. That is the real story: it's not just that memory is expensive, it's that your phone brand is no longer first in line.

Midrange phones will take the hit first

Flagships have margin to absorb a pricier memory chip, and brands can justify a higher sticker price with a premium story. The midrange can't. There is little room for a surprise price bump on a phone whose whole appeal is value.

So we expect brands to choose between two bad options: raise the price or trim the spec. Trimming is the sneaky one. A phone that keeps its name but ships with less RAM or slower storage is a price increase in disguise, and it's easy to miss on a spec sheet. TrendForce says entry-level makers may turn to salvaged or lower-specification components to keep their lines viable. That is a forecast, and the salvaged-chip reports are unconfirmed rumors that TechNews says are largely limited to ultra-low-cost, unbranded phones. Still, the direction is clear.

The reports out of China point the same way. They say some chips cost up to RMB 500 more per unit, and that some brands are cutting production and sales volumes rather than passing the whole increase on to consumers. None of this is confirmed by the companies or Chinese authorities. But if true, it suggests brands would rather sell fewer phones than raise prices, and that they are running out of options.

Don't panic-buy, but stop waiting for a bargain

The market data is grim. TrendForce projected global smartphone production would fall 14% year over year to about 1.07 billion units in 2026, though that forecast was revised upward, and it cautioned that rising memory costs could put further pressure on the market in 2027. Fewer phones, higher costs: in our view, that is not the recipe for a holiday-season price war.

Here is what we'd tell readers:

• If your phone works fine, keep it. Waiting for cheaper memory is a bet against every forecast above.
• If you must buy, prioritize RAM and storage over cosmetics. We suspect those are the components most likely to be trimmed next year. Check the exact configuration, not just the model name.
• If you're eyeing a midrange phone for 2027, expect to pay more or get less. A discount that holds the spec constant will probably be the exception.
• Don't pay extra for gimmicks on a flagship you don't need. The brands with the deepest pockets are likelier to protect their top models, so the premium tier may be where specs hold up best.

The verdict

The honest caveat is that we haven't seen a phone-specific price forecast for 2027, and we won't invent one. What we do have is a supply picture in which phones compete with AI servers and lose. Our view: the cheap, generous-spec midrange phone is the quiet casualty of the AI boom. Buy what you need when you need it, read the spec sheet like a contract, and don't expect the next generation to be kinder than this one.